This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and enjoy the remainder of the afternoon when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we ought to have a large edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these names they have not heard and will only be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a big score. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card that Sunday and I think we’ll see a lot of people making mistakes in cash games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I love to pile it in my cash games and lock in those factors. I believe this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we could see numerous knockdowns as well which would help, but I think we readily get over 100+ points together with both of these men. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock in a 100+ points and a triumph, then we only have to find another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think this matchup was set up for Bermudez a triumph. He’s got a very slick submission game and when this fight goes to the floor I think he will pick up advance points fast and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning the toes, he shoots in for takedowns every struggle. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we can observe a 1st round entry here and that should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog play of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked more times than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I would not be shocked if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the past few years but I believe that he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, but I believe you need some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my picks being right and I will hit the right combo. It’s hard to choose one favourite fade this week however I will select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the choice win here. Thus, you would think that sounds great on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. However, he does not chain together takedowns and he ends up with only 1 or two in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and I really don’t see him getting a entry. However, I think we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
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